Infections caused by the new Covid variant Omicron are rising rapidly, doubling every two to three days - and modelling is warning hospital admissions could rise sharply.
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Ministers across the UK are under pressure to bring in tougher Covid measures.
There are strong arguments for those, but there are also reasons why trying to do more to suppress Omicron could be damaging.
Much has been made of suggestions that this variant is causing milder illness.
In South Africa, reports are emerging that people are not as seriously ill in this wave as they were in earlier ones.
There is still uncertainty about this. But it is logical. Not because the virus has changed to become less severe, but because reinfections and infections post-vaccination are likely to be milder.
If so, that puts the UK in a strong position - probably the strongest in Europe - to be able to deal with this wave.
On top of that there is the impact of the rapid rollout of boosters, which research suggests are vital to blunting the impact of Omicron.
The key, though, will be that the NHS can keep delivering care to those who need it.
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